I just received the following email. It is below.

So that you know what to look for, note the ascending dark blue line and the light blue line hovering around 40GT of CO2e in the chart below.

The light blue line means we are increasing the concentration of CO2e, in our atmosphere by about 40 billion tons of CO2e per year through 2100. This number has to be ZERO, or a negative number, to facilitate any reduction in the concentration of CO2e in the atmosphere.

In 1990’s humans averaged about 25 GT of CO2e per year.

For perspective, think of an overflowing bath tub. Instead of turning off the faucet, a plumber claims victory because he has installed systems that will not increase the flow from the faucet into the tub for the next eighty years. The tub  still overflows. The sensible thing to do is turn off the flow of water.

The same is true with CO2e flowing from human endeavors into the atmosphere; turn down, or turn off the flow of CO2e. That’s why the number on the chart at 40GT needs to be ZERO or negative to have any real impact. ZERO means there is no excess flow of CO2e into the atmosphere. Saying we haven’t increased the overflow rate is not a victory for anyone. It does declare effort on the part of the US and China to address the issue–so that deserves some applause– but it is far short of victory and doing nothing is far worse.

The rest, well you decide.

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Dear Daniel,

The United States and China just announced a new climate deal and we’ve analyzed its impact. China President Xi Jinping made the commitment that China would stop its emissions from growing by 2030, and President Obama announced that the United States would emit 26 percent to 28 percent less carbon in 2025 than it did in 2005.

We ran the numbers and found that the new commitments by the United States and China would, if fully implemented, keep 640 billion tons of CO₂ from being emitted into the atmosphere. The total is greater than all global fossil fuel emissions from 1990-2013.

And, as a thought experiment, if all developing countries were to cap emissions in 2030 consistent with China’s proposal and all developed countries were to take the same reduction action as the US, then 2500 gigatons of CO₂ would not be emitted into the atmosphere.

For more information on our findings, check out and share our latest blog post here: http://www.climateinteractive.org/analysis/breaking-analysis-us-china-climate-deal-by-the-numbers/

For more information, please contact me, Co-Director Drew Jones, at apjones@climateinteractive.org or Co-Director Beth Sawin at esawin@climateinteractive.org.

Sincerely,

Drew Jones

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I want to thank my friends at Climate Interactive for helping me illustrate a key climate problem. Only through their dedication and email distribution system could this post have been born.